Momentum Stocks That Are Crushing the S&P 500 Right Now
The S&P 500’s year-to-date return of roughly 12% masks a brutal dispersion beneath the surface. While the index’s mega-cap tech leaders grind higher, a distinct cohort of mid- and large-cap momentum names is delivering 40%, 60%, and even 100%+ gains. These aren’t speculative micro-caps; they are fundamentally sound businesses with accelerating earnings, expanding margins, and institutional sponsorship.
Momentum investing is not about chasing the highest daily gainer. It’s about identifying persistent, statistically significant trends in price and fundamental revisions. The stocks below share three critical traits: (1) a 50-day moving average well above the 200-day, (2) positive earnings estimate revisions over the last 60 days, and (3) relative strength ratios (stock vs. SPY) hitting fresh 52-week highs. Here are the names currently dominating the tape.
1. AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP) — The AI Advertising Compound
The Price Action: APP is up over 240% in the trailing twelve months and has crushed the S&P 500 by a factor of 10x since its October 2023 pivot. The stock recently broke out of a three-week consolidation on volume 1.8x its 50-day average.
Why It’s Working: AppLovin’s Axon 2.0 AI engine has transformed its advertising segment into a high-margin, high-growth machine. For Q2 2024, the company reported a 71% year-over-year surge in ad revenue, with EBITDA margins expanding to 56%. The market initially dismissed this as a one-time gaming tailwind, but successive quarters have proven durability. The company is now applying Axon to e-commerce, opening a Total Addressable Market (TAM) that is 10x its core gaming vertical.
The Momentum Metric to Watch: Relative Volume (RVOL) on up-days is consistently above 1.5, indicating institutional accumulation. Analyst consensus EPS for FY2025 has been revised upward by 22% in the last 30 days. As long as the 10-week moving average holds, the trend remains statistically intact.
2. Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) — The Short-Squeeze Turned Secular Growth
The Price Action: CVNA has surged from a death spiral low of $11 in January 2023 to over $150 today. More importantly, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 85% in just the last six months, making it one of the highest beta momentum names in the Russell 1000.
Why It’s Working: This is no longer a distressed asset play. Carvana has executed a stunning operational turnaround. The company posted its first GAAP net income quarter in Q2 2024, driven by a 35% reduction in SG&A per unit and a 32% gross profit per unit increase. The bear case was debt maturity walls; the bull case is now cash flow generation that pays down debt faster than anticipated.
The Momentum Catalyst: The latest 13F filings show major hedge funds (including Citadel and Millennium) establishing fresh positions after years of avoidance. The short interest ratio has fallen from 45% to 8%, meaning the massive volatility is now driven by long-side conviction, not covering. The stock’s 50-day moving average is converging with the 20-day, a classic pre-breakout coil pattern.
3. Powell Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: POWL) — The Electrification Infrastructure Play
The Price Action: POWL is up over 130% year-to-date, and it has not closed below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) for 40 consecutive trading sessions. It is the top-performing industrial stock in the S&P 400 MidCap index, which itself is up only 8% this year.
Why It’s Working: The U.S. electrical grid is decades old, and the AI data center buildout has created an unprecedented bottleneck for switchgear and electrical enclosures. Powell is a niche manufacturer with a 90%+ win rate on large-scale utility and petrochemical projects. The backlog grew to $1.3 billion in Q3, representing 2.1x trailing twelve-month revenue—a visibility level that is nearly unheard of in the cyclical industrial space.
The Momentum Edge: Earnings estimate revisions for FY2025 have skyrocketed from $4.85 to $8.50 in just 90 days. This is a “revision momentum” play, not just price momentum. Institutional ownership has jumped from 52% to 68% since January. When a stock with a 29% return on equity (ROE) gets earnings upgrades this fast, the price tends to overshoot to the upside before consolidating.
4. Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) — The Proxy for the AI Capex Cycle
The Price Action: NVDA is up 140% over the past year and recently reclaimed its all-time high after a 15% correction in July. Its relative strength ratio against the S&P 500 has made a higher high, while the S&P itself has not. This is the hallmark of a leader.
Why It’s Working: The narrative is obvious—Hopper and Blackwell GPUs are sold out through Q1 2025. But the momentum edge is subtle. Nvidia has become a high-frequency trading vehicle for quantitative funds. The stock’s correlation to the 10-year Treasury yield is near zero, making it a pure play on AI capex. When you see NVDA’s 50-day volume rising on dips by 20% or less, that is absorption—large funds are using volatility to add size.
The Technical Setup: The current phase is a textbook “pennant within a channel.” The stock has formed a series of higher lows since the August 5th low, while the S&P has made a lower high. This relative strength is the most reliable momentum signal on Wall Street. The $120 to $125 zone is now a massive support shelf; a break above $140 will likely trigger algorithmic buy triggers.
5. International Flavors & Fragrances (NYSE: IFF) — The Quiet Turnaround (Not a Tech Play)
The Price Action: IFF is up 62% over the last six months, versus the S&P’s 8%. This is a “stealth momentum” name—no headlines, no AI buzz, just relentless upward drift.
Why It’s Working: The company underwent a massive deleveraging and portfolio rationalization. After selling its cosmetic ingredients business, IFF is now a pure-play on food and beverage innovation. Q2 earnings showed a 40% year-over-year surge in free cash flow, and management raised guidance for the second consecutive quarter. This is a margin recovery story, which is the most persistent form of earnings momentum.
The Momentum Signals: The stock recently crossed above its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2021. Weekly volume on up-weeks is 25% higher than volume on down-weeks, indicating accumulation without volatility. Analysts are scrambling to upgrade the stock; the average price target has moved from $85 to $105 in a single month. This is a laggard catch-up trade that is now leading.
6. Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) — Powering the AI Revolution
The Price Action: VST has returned 105% this year, far outpacing every utility in the S&P 500. It is currently trading 18% above its 50-day moving average, which is a stretched condition, yet the trend shows no sign of exhaustion.
Why It’s Working: Vistra owns a fleet of natural gas and nuclear power plants in Texas and the Midwest. The hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google) are signing long-term PPAs (Power Purchase Agreements) for baseload capacity to power data centers. Vistra’s retail electricity segment provides a stable base, but the wholesale power price spikes in ERCOT (Texas grid) have created windfall profits. Q2 EBITDA of $1.4 billion beat estimates by 30%.
The Momentum Driver: This stock is now trading on earnings revisions that are accelerating weekly. The 2024 EPS consensus has moved from $2.50 to $4.90 in just three months. When a utility starts trading like a growth stock, the re-rating is violent. Relative strength vs. the SPDR Utilities ETF (XLU) is at a 5-year high. Any pullback to the 10-day EMA has been bought aggressively.
7. Deckers Outdoor Corp. (NYSE: DECK) — The Consumer Discretionary Compound
The Price Action: DECK is up 55% year-to-date, crushing the S&P 500 by a wide margin. The stock has made 17 new 52-week highs in the last 30 sessions.
Why It’s Working: The Hoka running shoe brand is the dominant force in premium athletic footwear, growing revenue at a 30% clip while operating margins expand to 22%. The UGG brand has stabilized with an 20% growth rate in direct-to-consumer channels. This is a two-engine growth story, rare in apparel.
The Momentum Metric: The proprietary “smart money flow” index shows buying pressure exceeding selling pressure by a ratio of 8:1 over the past month. The forward P/E of 28x is justified by a PEG ratio of 0.8 (price/earnings to growth), meaning the market is underpricing the earnings velocity. The stock is in a tight ascending channel; resistance is irrelevant when volume is this consistent.
8. Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) — The Pharmaceutical Momentum Leader
The Price Action: LLY has gained 93% over the past 12 months and consistently delivers positive alpha during S&P 500 corrections. In August’s market selloff, LLY fell only 3% vs. SPY’s 6% drawdown.
Why It’s Working: Beyond the GLP-1 weight-loss mania (Mounjaro/Zepbound), Lilly has a pipeline that is generating $20 billion in incremental peak sales. The supply constraints are the only headwind, but the company is investing $9 billion in new manufacturing plants in North Carolina and Indiana. This is a supply-side scarcity moat. The momentum is driven by a fundamental scarcity of production capacity that keeps product lifecycle demand elevated.
The Technical Read: The stock is consolidating between $750 and $820. This is a bullish continuation pattern known as a “flag.” The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart is 62—below overbought—indicating there is ample room to run. Institutional rotation into LLY as a defensive growth proxy is accelerating, as it offers compounded earnings growth without the volatility of tech.
Momentum Screener Criteria (For Replication)
To identify the next names joining this list, screen for the following every Monday pre-market:
- Relative Strength vs. SPY (RS Line): Must be at a 6-month high.
- Estimate Revisions: Consensus next-fiscal-year EPS must be revised up by at least 7% in the last 4 weeks.
- Volume Confirmation: 20-day average volume must be above the 50-day average on up-days, and below on down-days.
- Breadth Filter: At least 60% of the company’s 500 largest shareholders must have increased their stake in the last quarter (per 13F filings).
Risk Management in Momentum
Momentum cuts both ways. The inverse ETFs tracking the S&P are being heavily shorted, but a single 3% down day for these leaders can trigger a 10% correction in the stock. The key risk metrics to monitor:
- The 50-Day Moving Average: A close below this level on 1.5x average volume requires immediate position reduction.
- The 20-Day EMA vs. 50-Day SMA Spread: If the spread compresses by more than 50% in a week, the trend is losing steam.
- VIX Correlation: If the VIX spikes above 25, momentum stocks underperform value by 400 basis points in a single week. Use VIX calls as a hedge only when this cohort begins to trade in tandem (high inter-stock correlation).
Sector Allocation Tactics
The momentum cohort above spans five sectors: Technology (NVDA), Communication Services (APP), Industrials (POWL), Consumer Discretionary (DECK), and Utilities (VST). This diversification is crucial because momentum contagion rarely spreads across sectors. If you see capital rot out of APP and NVDA simultaneously, it indicates a liquidity-driven unwind, not a sector rotation. In that scenario, the money often flows into POWL and VST as defensive momentum.
For new capital, the best risk/reward enters are on VST and IFF, as they have not yet experienced the parabolic phase that typically marks the exhaustion of a momentum move. Parabolic price action (a 45-degree angle straight up) in APP and POWL suggests they are in the “climax run” phase; owning them is profitable, but adding new exposure there is statistically less favorable than in laggards like IFF.
The Earnings Season Catalyst
The next 30 days are critical. Each of these names reports earnings within a 45-day window. The market has priced in perfection. The key variable is not whether they beat—they will—but the guidance for the next quarter. A company like Carvana with a 200% EPS beat will still drop 8% if management guides to flat sequential growth. The momentum trade is a game of elevated expectations. The ideal entry is the first green day following the earnings gap-down, confirming that sellers are exhausted and the base is forming.
Focus on the weekly chart for all these names. Daily noise is irrelevant. The 10-week moving average is the line in the sand—if it breaks on a closing basis, the momentum cycle has changed, and it will take weeks to rebuild the base. Until then, the trend remains your friend, and these eight institutions are dictating the tape.
